Russia’s decision to disregard EU-sanctioned price caps will impact oil prices. The US Fed won’t declare victory over inflation until it sees more evidence of inflation easing. All of these will matter for Nigeria’s economy. Wherever oil prices land, Nigeria will have to finally reckon with the fact that its relevance on the global oil stage is shrinking. The CBN won’t want to stray too far from whatever their American counterpart does.
As the noise of ringing in the new year fades, Stears is turning now to consider the headwinds Nigeria is up against in 2023 and how they will determine the fortunes of the businesses and individuals that make up Nigeria’s economy.
We’re also thinking about the upcoming elections.
It’s difficult to convince Nigerians that governors matter at least as much as presidents. That’s why voter turnout for the Presidential Election in 2019 was 36% but as low as 10% for Anambra State Governorship Election. Governors control education and healthcare, two sectors that shape the outcomes of our lives.
The 2023 elections will see 31 governorship contests. Much is at stake.
Finally, the tech ecosystem, which has been held up as a beacon for a struggling economy since funding grew 16x between 2016 and 2021 (overall continent growth for the same period is 14x). In 2023, funding flows to this part of the economy will finally find macroeconomic risks getting in the way.
In a 4-part series (all published today!), our analysts and sector experts consider the new reality that is emerging in the wake of soaring inflation, slower VC funding, an uncertain energy landscape, and a newly elected government.
My favourite part about the new year is not just the celebrating but the sense of “there’s a lot more that we can do”. We’ve found the same to be true for Nigeria in 2023. Dig in!
Nigeria in 2023
What to expect from oil prices in 2023 - Stears' scenario-based analysis for global oil prices and what it means for Nigeria
What will drive Nigeria's inflation in 2023? - An outlook on Nigeria's inflation for the year
Nigeria's governors matter for the country's future, here's why - Nigeria's governors have less scrutiny compared to the President. This should not continue.
Four numbers that describe Africa's tech ecosystem - Four Statistics on Africa’s Startup Ecosystem in 2022… and a Brief 2023 Outlook