Why Tinubu could lose to Peter Obi in Lagos

Feb 08, 2023|Joachim MacEbong

Key questions this article answers:

With one of the highest shares of registered voters, the outcome of the elections in Lagos can significantly impact the overall election results. What does the 2023 Stears Electoral poll reveal about voter preferences for Lagosians?
Tinubu's campaign is facing increasing pressure due to the APC's record in office. This makes the race tighter between Tinubu and Peter Obi in Lagos state. How can we predict the outcome of the presidential elections in Lagos?

Yesterday’s release of the Stears 2023 electoral poll results show the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi leading nationally and as a clear winner in a high turnout scenario.

In this article, we explore one key reason for Obi’s success in the polls. In addition to our national poll, we boosted samples in six states—Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Kwara, Benue, and Plateau. Each state has a 500-strong sample, enough for us to make statistically valid conclusions for those states as a compliment to the bird’s eye view of the national poll. This is a unique feature of the Stears 2023 Electoral Poll.

The reasons for selecting Lagos are obvious and not so obvious. Lagos is not only the state with the most registered voters (8% of national voters), it accounts for 39% of voters in the South-West, a greater share than any other state has in its own zone. Also, Lagos is increasingly predictive of the winner of the presidential elections. The state has voted for the winner of the presidential election in the last four cycles, which increases to five if you assume that Lagos voted for PDP in the pretty flawed 2007 elections.

Lastly, the APC’s performance in the other zones is concerning for the party. It is in single digits in the South-East and South-South, while trailing the Labour Party in Nigeria's North-Centre, and the PDP in the North-East and North-West. If those numbers hold, it will be crucial for the APC to get a big result in the South-West for its path to victory to remain open.

The above facts make Lagos a crucial battleground state, and its direction will be closely watched on election day. One last thing to note before we dive into the poll results.