The views expressed in this article are those of this guest author and do not reflect the views of Stears.

Let’s set something straight—Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the frontrunner to be President of Nigeria in the February 2023 elections.

However unpalatable that prospect may seem (not least to yours truly), it is not a reality that is so easily wished away. He first won an election in 1992 into Ibrahim Babangida’s ‘fake’ Senate and returned seven years later as governor of Nigeria’s richest state. All of that might seem a fairly conventional—and perhaps lucky—career for anyone who gambled on General Abdulsalami Abubakar actually giving up power to civilians in 1999 (we must remember that many ‘good’ people fatefully chose not to participate in the transition to democracy in 1999 because they did not believe Abubakar’s military government was sincere).

But if he got lucky in 1999, it is hard to