Kenya’s upstream oil challenges threaten export ambitions

In the past year, the Kenyan currency has depreciated, losing more than 21% of its value, significantly increasing the cost of imports. Data indicates that from January to August 2023, Kenya spent an average of $330 million per month, drawing about 34% of its forex reserves in the 8 months.

This has prompted Kenya to explore alternative methods to boost its export revenue to ensure a stable supply of dollars. As a result, the government is reexamining the country's oil production capabilities to cushion its shrinking forex reserves.

Kenya's oil export dream started in 2012 when the first commercial-scale oil deposits were discovered in Turkana. However, almost 12 years later, the oil remains underground, and the export dream appears more distant than the initial projection for 2022. It's 2024, and the dream is still unrealised. 

This report sheds light on the developments since the initial discovery that ignited optimism, analyses