Key Questions
  1. Is Kenya staring at a possible load shedding in 2024?
  2. What factors will impact the grid?

Load shedding has become a common occurrence in southern Africa. Out of the eleven countries in the region, only Angola and Botswana are not facing imminent risk of load shedding. 

South Africa is one of the most electrified countries in Africa at 89.3%, but recent trends show a decline in access rate as the energy crisis keeps growing. This has compelled Eskom, the national utility provider, to implement load shedding for 232 days as of September 2023, which is about 1.5x more than what was experienced in 2022.

This situation significantly impacted the economy, with GDP growing by a mere 0.6% in Q2 2023. The economic outlook for 2023 is grim, with GDP growth projected at only 0.3%, with a risk of even lower growth figures if load shedding continues.

In Kenya, national-level blackouts are increasing, and the grid's reserve margin is becoming too low to provide a safe buffer