Key questions this article answers:
  • In November, currency volatility persisted in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa as the naira, shilling, and rand lost 22% YTD compared to the USD. What were the main drivers of exchange rate performance in these countries? 
  • What is the outlook for each currency for December 2023? 

In November, currency pressures remained in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. YTD, all three currencies have lost an average of 22% against the USD. As mentioned in the October FX analysis, the performance of the USD post the US Fed’s rate decision to pause rates on November 1, bloated import costs and low dollar liquidity in each country drove currency movements in November. 

 

 

In this round-up, we’ll focus on the drivers of exchange rates in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa and provide an outlook for December. 

The naira’s choppy performance

Post-FX liberalisation, multiple rates have remained in Nigeria’s FX market. 

 

 

As of November 2023, the existing rates are the NAFEX, NAFEM, NFEM and the parallel rate. The NAFEM is reported by the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited, an integrated financial market and securities exchange in Nigeria and NFEM by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Though they should be relatively the same as they were