The views expressed in this article are those of the guest author and do not reflect the views of Stears.

Even though the signs were there that it was possible, it is nonetheless still surprising that Peter Obi took Lagos right under the nose of Bola Tinubu, the president-elect.

Yes, Stears' polling & modelling predicted an Obi win in Lagos, and interestingly six out of seven Stears polls proved accurate (in Lagos, Benue, Plateau, Kano, Kwara and the countrywide results), yet I remain surprised that he pulled it off. 

You cannot emphasise the APC's hold on Lagos enough.

First, it is unusual for any of the set of 1999 Governors to still be a political godfather in their state today. But, in 2019, Bola Ahmed Tinubu got away with removing a governor he had installed only four years before, an unprecedented move in Nigerian politics. Just four years ago, it