Q3 2026 Private Capital in Africa Activity Report
Analysing trends in private capital activity in Africa.
The Q3 2026 Stears Private Capital in Africa Report analyses African private market transactions for Q3 2026. It examines key trends in private investment, offering fund managers and corporate decision-makers insights into the countries, industries, and companies attracting private capital.
Key takeaways
Fewer transactions accompanied record Q3 value. Stears tracked 240 transactions, down 4% from Q2 and 18% year-on-year. Disclosed value reached $19.0 billion, up 57% quarterly and the highest Q3 total in the 2020–2026 series.
The value increase extended beyond NNPC. Its $4.5 billion refinancing supplied 24% of disclosed value, while the ten largest transactions accounted for 62%. Without NNPC, value still reached $14.5 billion, above Q2’s full total of $12.1 billion.
Lending expanded beyond the largest facilities. Debt financing appeared in 97 transactions, against 67 in Q2 and 58 a year earlier. Private credit’s share of transactions reached 30%. Removing the largest credit transaction from each period leaves $7.2 billion in Q3, compared with $3.1 billion and $1.1 billion.
Larger tickets increasingly favoured borrowers. The median disclosed ticket rose to $17.5 million from $4.4 million in Q2 and $3.3 million a year earlier. In the $10–25 million band, debt appeared in 63% of transactions, while equity-only deals represented 26%, leaving fewer options for businesses needing equity before they could support repayments.
African investors gained participation, especially in larger deals. African-headquartered investors appeared in 69% of transactions with identified investors and 73% of deals worth at least $25 million. African development lenders participated in 30 transactions, up from ten in Q2, although EBID accounted for more than half.
Public borrowers accounted for a substantial share of financing. Nine government and public-project financings carried about $3.3 billion, largely involving development lenders. Further phases of existing projects also contributed to infrastructure activity, showing continued financing for delivery rather than solely for new developments.
Financial services gained ground in funding and acquisitions. The sector appeared in 35% of all transactions, 51% of venture transactions and 14 of the quarter’s 29 acquisitions. Lending and banking drove much of its quarterly growth, while payments-related transaction counts remained unchanged.
Higher energy value did not extend to renewables. Energy & Utilities recorded $8.3 billion, with six oil and gas transactions supplying $7.3 billion. Renewable generation recorded 18 transactions worth $310 million, below both comparison periods in count and disclosed value.
Exits recovered quarterly, but remained below last year. Q3 recorded 22 exits, against 11 in Q2 and 30 a year earlier. Over the first nine months, secondary sales held broadly steady while trade sales declined, and the median recorded holding period increased to seven years from six.
North Africa gained activity as other major markets weakened. Its transaction share rose to 24%, from 20% in Q2 and 18% a year earlier. Egypt was the only Big Five market to record more transactions across both comparisons, while West Africa retained the largest regional share at 44%.
Overview of private capital transaction activity
Africa’s private capital market recorded its highest Q3 disclosed value in Stears’ 2020–2026 series, even as transaction activity declined. Stears tracked 240 transactions, down 4% from Q2 and 18% from 294 a year earlier. Q2 activity has been revised to 251 transactions from the 221 initially reported, while its disclosed value rose to $12.1 billion from $10.8 billion.
Q3 disclosed value reached $19.0 billion, up 57% quarterly and nearly three times last year’s total. Disclosure remained broadly unchanged at 64%, so larger transactions drove the increase. NNPC’s $4.5 billion refinancing supplied 24% of value, although removing it still leaves $14.5 billion, above Q2’s full total.
Lending expanded, with debt appearing in 97 transactions against 67 in Q2. Refinancing, existing infrastructure and nine public-project financings worth $3.3 billion contributed substantially, while African investors participated more frequently in larger deals. Venture and acquisition counts fell, and private equity activity barely changed, suggesting that stronger lending offered limited reassurance to businesses needing equity to grow.
Ticket sizes: Larger transactions increasingly involved debt
Deals of $25 million or more accounted for 45% of disclosed transactions in Q3 2026, up from 31% in Q2 and 18% a year earlier, despite little change in the number of transactions reporting values. There were 153 such transactions, compared with 159 in Q2 and 155 in Q3 2025. Mega deals above $75 million accounted for 91% of disclosed value, while the median ticket increased to $17.5 million from $4.4 million in Q2 and $3.3 million a year earlier.
Part of the increase in the median reflects fewer small grants in the disclosed sample, with grant-tagged transactions falling to 12 from 38 in Q2 and 40 in Q3 2025. Excluding grants across all three periods, the median still doubled from $10.9 million in Q2 to $22 million in Q3, compared with $7.5 million a year earlier. The increase was therefore substantial even after adjusting for the change in transaction composition. Meanwhile, transactions below $2.5 million declined to 25 after excluding grants, from 36 in Q2 and 31 a year earlier, indicating that smaller financing rounds also became less common.
Ticket sizes rose as debt financing grew, with the median debt transaction reaching $36.6 million, down from $40 million in Q2 and up from $7.2 million a year earlier. Equity-only transactions remained considerably smaller, with a median of $6.6 million, up from $4.4 million in Q2 but below the $9.3 million recorded in Q3 2025. Consequently, the typical disclosed debt transaction was about 5.5 times the size of an equity-only transaction, reversing the trend from a year earlier, when the equity median was higher. Although the median loan declined slightly quarter-on-quarter, debt accounted for a greater share of activity, while equity ticket sizes remained below their year-earlier level.
This shift was also evident in transactions between $10 million and $25 million, where the total number of deals remained relatively stable at 27, down from 28 a year earlier, but their composition shifted sharply. Debt financing accounted for 63% of transactions in the band, up from 50% in Q2 and 43% in Q3 2025, while equity-only deals fell to 26%, from 44% in Q2 and 54% a year earlier. A year ago, more than half of transactions in this range were financed solely through equity. This quarter, roughly one in four was. For businesses raising capital at this size, financing increasingly favours those able to service debt. Continued activity in the segment offers less reassurance to companies that need equity to scale before their cash flows can support borrowing.
Asset class activity in Q3 2026
Private credit accounted for 30% of transactions in Q3, up from 20% in Q2 and 19% a year earlier, with the increase extending beyond NNPC’s $4.5 billion refinancing. Even after removing the largest credit transaction from each period, disclosed value reached $7.2 billion, compared with $3.1 billion in Q2 and $1.1 billion in Q3 2025. Therefore, the increase in both transaction share and adjusted disclosed value suggests that credit activity strengthened beyond the quarter’s largest facilities.
Much of this financing came from banks and development institutions, which participated in several of the quarter’s largest commercial facilities. Export Trading Group secured $600 million from development institutions and investment managers, including the Trade and Development Bank Group and the Dutch development bank FMO. Cheiron Finance raised $550 million from a Gulf-led bank syndicate alongside the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), while Genser Energy also secured approximately $528 million from commercial banks. EBID led recorded participation in private credit, followed by EBRD with six transactions. The increase in activity points to a growing market for private lending, although direct financing from banks and development institutions continues to account for a substantial share. Dedicated private credit funds are participating in this expansion, but the growth in transaction activity should not be interpreted as evidence of a comparable increase in fund-led lending.
Venture activity became more concentrated in financial services
Venture recorded 90 transactions in Q3, down from 136 in Q2 and 142 a year earlier, although much of the quarterly decline came from fewer grants. Grant-tagged transactions accounted for 33 of the 46 fewer deals recorded between Q2 and Q3. Excluding grants across all three periods, venture activity declined by a more moderate 13% quarter-on-quarter and increased 5% year-on-year.
Despite the lower transaction count, financial services became considerably more prominent, appearing in 51% of venture transactions compared with 21% in both comparison periods. This was not simply due to fewer grants, as financial services' share of non-grant transactions also rose from 28% in Q2 and 32% a year earlier to 51% in Q3. Payment-related activity remained relatively stable at 21 transactions, up from 19 in each comparison period, suggesting the shift came from a broader range of financial services businesses. These included lending and financing companies such as Moove, Mission Mobile and Watu, alongside established payment platforms.
The concentration in financial services coincided with a rise in follow-on funding, which accounted for 18% of venture transactions in Q3, compared with 9% in Q2 and 2% a year earlier. Their share of disclosed value changed less from the previous quarter, reaching 67% from 60% in Q2, though this was still considerably higher than the 3% recorded in Q3 2025. The largest transactions included Moove’s $250 million Series C raise, Yellow Card’s $40 million round and Paymob’s $35 million pre-Series C funding. While follow-on funding became more common, it already accounted for a large share of disclosed value in Q2, suggesting that larger cheques continued to be concentrated among companies that had previously raised capital. However, Renew Capital’s 15 undisclosed transactions limit what we can conclude about how much funding reached companies outside those larger rounds.
The decline in venture-linked Information Technology funding also requires some context, as disclosed transaction value fell from $775 million in Q2 to $89 million in Q3. Factorial’s $690 million transaction accounted for most of the previous quarter’s value, and excluding it leaves $85 million, slightly below the Q3 total. The apparent quarterly contraction was therefore largely driven by the absence of one unusually large transaction, although Q3 funding remained below the $232 million recorded a year earlier.
Private equity value rose without much growth in dealmaking
Private equity recorded 41 transactions in Q3, broadly unchanged from 40 in Q2 but below the 66 recorded a year earlier. Although disclosed value increased 78% quarter-on-quarter to $1.2 billion, it remained 14% below Q3 2025, with the Egyptian Refining Company stake acquisition and WIOCC’s capital raise from Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and Vision Invest accounting for 60% of the quarter’s total. Exit-tagged transactions also represented a larger share of activity, rising to 34% from 20% in Q2 and 24% a year earlier. The increase in disclosed value therefore came alongside relatively limited growth in dealmaking and a higher proportion of transactions involving the sale of existing holdings.
Infrastructure deals rose as lenders backed existing projects
Infrastructure & Project Finance recorded stronger growth in transaction activity, rising to 22 deals in Q3 from 18, and to 7 a year earlier. Further phases of the Algerian and Kano–Maradi railway projects accounted for 23% of the asset class’s $4.2 billion in disclosed value, indicating that financing for existing projects remained an important source of activity. The TotalEnergies $1.8 billion midstream transaction contributed another 43% and also accounted for 89% of Natural Resources value. This points to continued lender support for project delivery, though it provides less evidence that new projects are securing financing.
Who is funding the market and from where: African lenders moved to the front
Investors headquartered in Africa participated in 69% of Q3 2026 transactions with identified investors, up from 61% in Q2 and 63% a year earlier. These included development lenders such as African Development Bank (AfDB) and ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), commercial banks such as Rand Merchant Bank and Commercial International Bank, and private equity and venture investors such as Adenia Partners and Renew Capital. Participation rose most in larger transactions, reaching 73% of deals worth $25 million or more, up from 53% in Q2 and 58% in Q3 2025. Transactions involving at least one African investor accounted for 65% of disclosed value, up from 36% and 49% in Q2 and Q3, respectively.
The increase was concentrated in credit, where African investors participated in 45 transactions, up from 21 in Q2 and 30 a year earlier, lifting their share of private credit deals to 66% from 46% and 59%. African development lenders, mainly EBID, Afreximbank, AfDB and Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), participated in 30 transactions with a combined disclosed value of $4.7 billion, compared with 10 deals ($1.6 billion) in Q2 and six ($0.6 billion) a year earlier. For the first time across the three periods, they appeared in more transactions than development lenders headquartered outside Africa, which participated in 28. However, EBID alone accounted for 16 of the African institutions' transactions, indicating that a few lenders drove the increase. African commercial banks also expanded to 23 transactions, up from 16 in Q2 and 11 a year earlier, while foreign commercial banks, including Intesa Sanpaolo, Investec Bank and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, appeared in 5 transactions.
European participation declined while African lending activity expanded, though the pattern varied by asset class. European investors participated in 25% of transactions, down from 31% in Q2 and 34% a year earlier. Their private credit deal count remained relatively stable at 20, compared with 22 and 23 in comparable periods, meaning their share of credit transactions fell mainly because overall activity increased. In private equity, European participation declined from 22 transactions a year earlier to 11 in Q3, largely reflecting a smaller market, as PE deals with identified investors fell from 54 to 35. The quarter-on-quarter change was more pronounced: PE activity remained unchanged at 35 transactions, but European participation fell from 14 to 11. European PE fund managers accounted for just two investor positions in Q3, down from 10 in Q2, when firms such as Amethis and Apis Partners were active. The remaining European PE investors were primarily development and infrastructure firms, including FMO, A.P. Moller Capital and Meridiam. European venture capital participation remained unchanged at 17 transactions.
North American participation remained concentrated in venture capital, with investors such as Village Capital and General Catalyst appearing in 24 of 31 transactions involving North American investors overall. Gulf investors participated in just 4% of transactions, but those deals accounted for 13% of disclosed value, reflecting their involvement in larger financing rounds and facilities, including Mubadala's participation in Moove and Paymob and lending by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Mashreq.
The shift also showed up in the composition of financing partnerships. Transactions involving only African investors rose to 57% of deals, from 50% in Q2 and 54% a year earlier, while those involving only foreign investors fell to 31%, from 39% and 37%. Deals combining African and foreign investors accounted for 12%, broadly unchanged from 11% in Q2 and slightly above 9% a year earlier. African investors’ increased participation came mainly through transactions without foreign co-investors, offering limited evidence of greater co-investment between African and foreign capital.
Mergers & Acquisitions: Financial services acquisitions increased as overall dealmaking slowed
M&A accounted for 29 transactions in Q3 2026, or 12% of activity, compared with 36 (14%) in Q2 and 40 (14%) a year earlier. Disclosed value fell to $260 million from $3.1 billion in Q2 and $2.8 billion in Q3 2025, largely reflecting the absence of the billion-dollar acquisitions that lifted earlier quarters. Nuvei's $2.75 billion acquisition of Payoneer accounted for 89% of Q2's disclosed value, while Canal+'s $2.02 billion acquisition of MultiChoice represented 72% a year earlier. Q3's largest disclosed transaction, IronOak's ~$138 million acquisition of a 65% stake in Badger Properties, was considerably smaller. Also, only five acquisitions disclosed values during the quarter, compared with six in Q2 and ten a year earlier, making transaction counts a more reliable measure of changes in acquisition activity.
Financial Services accounted for 14 acquisitions, up from eight in Q2 and nine a year earlier, even as overall M&A activity declined. Several transactions involved fintech companies acquiring businesses to expand their product offerings or enter new markets:
Paystack disclosed its 2025 acquisition of Allawee, whose card-issuing technology has been integrated into Paystack, with Allawee’s standalone accounts due to close in December 2026
LemFi acquired Wealth8, an FCA-regulated investment platform, to add investing to its cross-border financial services
ZedCrest acquired Leatherback, bringing a functioning cross-border payments and multi-currency platform into the group
CreditChek acquired Algosys' Ugandan operations, gaining core banking software and an established customer base
Larger financial institutions were also active, with Emirates NBD acquiring HSBC's retail banking business in Egypt and e-Finance acquiring Tamweely Microfinance. The increase suggests that financial services consolidation continued despite the slowdown in acquisition activity.
African buyers participated in 15 of the 26 M&A transactions with identified acquirers, while foreign buyers pursued acquisitions across technology, financial services and hospitality. Vercel acquired developer-tool start-ups Better Auth and Stakpak, S&P Global took a majority stake in Nigeria's Agusto & Co, and Banyan Tree acquired 70% of South Africa's Newmark Hotels. Other transactions included CFAO Healthcare's acquisition of a 75% stake in Medswana's Botswana operations. These acquisitions show that international buyer interest extended beyond fintech, even though financial services accounted for most of the quarter's M&A activity.
Acquisitions also featured more prominently among exit-classified transactions. Fourteen M&A transactions were exit-tagged in Q3, compared with five in Q2 and 16 a year earlier. This represented nearly half of the quarter's acquisitions, up from 14% in Q2. Although overall M&A activity declined, the increase in exit-tagged transactions suggests that acquisitions provided more opportunities for existing shareholders to sell their holdings during the quarter.
Q3 2026 Exit Analysis: Secondary sales held up as trade sales declined
Q3 2026 recorded 22 exits, up from 11 in Q2 (first reported as seven) but below 30 a year earlier. African buyers offered investors exit routes in Q3, through purchases of minority and majority holdings.
South Africa’s 27four acquired Launch Africa Ventures’ stake in Peach Payments after a five-year holding period
In Nigeria, an Ardova-led consortium agreed to acquire Powergas from A.P. Moller Capital after seven years, adding an operating gas business to its distribution network
Adenia Partners acquired a majority stake in insurance broker Minet from Capitalworks, providing an exit after a nine-year holding period
Sunbeth Treenuts and Sesame agreed to acquire UAC’s 73.29% stake in Livestock Feeds, providing a prospective full exit after 13 years of ownership
These transactions show two sources of liquidity: investors willing to fund a company’s next stage of growth and businesses looking to expand through acquisitions.
Acquisitions also became a more common route for shareholder exits, even as overall M&A activity slowed. Fourteen of Q3’s 29 acquisitions were exit-tagged (48%), compared with five of 36 in Q2 (14%) and 16 of 40 a year earlier (40%). So, although fewer acquisitions took place, more involved existing shareholders selling their holdings than in Q2.
In the first nine months of the year, trade sales fell to 26 from 36 a year earlier, while secondary sales remained broadly unchanged at 24 against 23 transactions. Their share of exits rose to 37% from 29%, mainly because other exit routes declined. For GPs, secondary sales remained an option as acquisitions by operating businesses became less frequent, although finding another investor willing and able to buy the stake remained important.
Public markets offered another option, but IPO-linked transactions remained limited to two per nine-month period. Helios’ listing of T2S Group on the Casablanca Stock Exchange allowed it to sell part of its holding while remaining the largest shareholder.
Holding periods also increased. Among exits with recorded holding periods, the median was seven years in the first nine months of 2026, compared with six years a year earlier, based on 49 and 30 observations respectively. These figures cover investments that have exited, rather than those still held in portfolios.
Q3 2026 Investor League Table
Balance sheet lenders replaced grant programmes at the top of the Q3 2026 league table. EBID ranked first with 17 transactions, followed by Renew Capital with 15 and EBRD with nine. In Q2, the Islamic Development Bank and the Islamic Solidarity Fund for Development led with 36 transactions each, driven by small awards under the Tadamon programme. A year earlier, KOICA, the IKEA Foundation and UK Aid led on the same basis. However, grant activity did not disappear, it moved away from numerous small programme awards: grant-tagged transactions fell to 12, from 38 in Q2 and 62 a year earlier, and included larger awards such as the US State Department’s $150 million to Zipline Côte d’Ivoire.
Among investors with more than one transaction, African development lenders and banks recorded the highest disclosed values. EBID participated in deals worth $1.9 billion, followed by AfDB and Afreximbank at roughly $1.1 billion each, and Rand Merchant Bank at $1.0 billion. Two investors ranked highly through a single transaction: Global Infrastructure Partners with the $1.8 billion TotalEnergies midstream investment, and the World Bank with its $1.5 billion financing for the South African government. These figures capture the full value of each institution's transactions, not its individual contribution.
There is also a difference in recorded leadership. African development lenders led almost all of their transactions: EBID on all 17, AfDB on all 8, and Afreximbank on 6 of 7. Proparco, FMO, Impact Fund Denmark and BII participated in 10 distinct transactions worth about $1.2 billion, but at least one of these institutions led only four.
Beyond the institutional lenders, equity activity was spread across many smaller investors, few of which appeared in more than two transactions. Madica Ventures and Village Capital each took part in five, while Westbrooke Investments led three private equity deals in Southern Africa. Launch Africa Ventures, Edge Growth, Oxano Capital, CDG Invest Growth and Convergence Partners appeared twice each. Among venture investors, Mubadala’s two transactions carried the highest combined disclosed value, at $285 million.
Q3 2026 Sectoral Insights
Financial services accounted for 35% of transactions in Q3 2026, up from 24% in Q2 and 22% a year earlier. Energy & Utilities followed at 17%, compared with 15% and 16%, respectively. Industrials accounted for 11%, while Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary each represented about 10%. Information Technology’s share more than halved from 22% a year earlier and also fell from 14% in Q2.
Within financial services, lending and banking businesses drove much of the quarterly increase, accounting for 46% of transactions, up from 30% in Q2 but close to the 45% recorded a year earlier. Payments-related activity fell to 28% of the sector’s transactions, down from 39% in Q2 and 34% a year earlier, despite no change in quarterly deal count. The financing reached both specialist lenders and larger banks. Rand Merchant Bank and Standard Bank provided ~$20.3 million to South African SME lender Bridgement, while a BIAT-led group lent ~$30.5 million to Advans Tunisie. CRDB Bank in Tanzania secured $300 million from Intesa Sanpaolo and other partners, while CBZ Bank in Zimbabwe secured $190 million from Afreximbank. Funding these institutions can increase the money available to customers, but it leaves local lenders to decide which businesses qualify and on what terms.
Energy & Utilities recorded $8.3 billion in disclosed value, against $1.1 billion in Q2 and $678 million in Q3 2025. However, renewable generation activity weakened across both comparisons: 18 transactions carried $310 million, down from 20 transactions worth $619 million in Q2 and 29 worth $537 million a year earlier. Disclosed financings included $74 million for Odyssey Energy Solutions from BII, BIO, FMO and partners, and $32 million from EBRD for Hassan Allam Utilities’ renewable portfolio.
Meanwhile, six oil and gas transactions accounted for $7.3 billion, largely through the refinancing and midstream deals discussed earlier. Other large energy financings included AFC’s $300 million for Aksa Enerji’s thermal power plant in Burkina Faso and Afreximbank’s $200 million for the Hassi Bir Rekaiz field development in Algeria. Renewable generation attracted three times as many transactions as the oil and gas group, but its declining count and value show that the sector’s headline increase did not extend to renewable financing.
Public infrastructure was another significant destination for capital. Nine financings, worth about $3.3 billion, went to governments and public projects, including roads, railways, a hospital and a hydropower plant. EBID committed €65.9 million to a 200-bed regional hospital in Siguiri, Guinea, and ~$68.2 million to the Tinkisso II hydropower project, while Afreximbank provided ~$127 million to the Republic of Chad. Development lenders provided almost all of this financing.
Agriculture also recorded fewer deals, but at a higher value. Its 13 transactions carried $1.5 billion, compared with 25 deals worth $664 million in Q2 and 35 worth $85 million a year earlier. Three facilities supplied 97% of Q3’s value, concentrating financing in trading, distribution and inputs. These included Export Trading Group’s $600 million financing, Afreximbank’s $500 million for the Africa Trading and Distribution Company, and RMB’s $340 million for Indorama’s fertiliser business in Nigeria. Smaller transactions also supported the supply chain, including $18 million for Cold Solutions Rwanda, while EBID provided about $10 million to G-Farms in The Gambia. Most disclosed capital went to businesses that supply farmers and move their output. Whether that financing improves producers’ access to inputs, storage and buyers is the more useful test of how far its benefits reach.
Transaction types across sectors
Investment-tagged transactions dominated Information Technology, accounting for 92% of activity, up from 74% in Q2 and 72% a year earlier. This partly reflected fewer acquisitions: M&A’s share of IT transactions fell to 8%, from 29% and 20%. The sector’s smaller pool of transactions included a higher share of funding rounds and fewer ownership changes. Healthcare also remained mainly investment-tagged, at 55%, although down from 78% a year earlier.
Debt and project financing featured more prominently in sectors building physical assets. In Energy & Utilities, debt appeared in 50% of transactions, against 37% in Q2 and 26% a year earlier, and project financing in 33%, up from 26% and 11%. Real Estate showed the strongest combination, with debt in eight of nine transactions and project financing in six. Across all sectors, project financing rose to 42 transactions from 16 in Q2 and seven a year earlier. Consumer Discretionary saw the sharpest swing toward debt, at 43% of transactions, up from 10% and 15%. Much of this went to physical assets. CIB provided $80 million for Eroglu Knitting’s textile operations in Egypt while IFC financed hotel projects in Mauritania ($15 million) and Ghana ($10 million). However, not every rise in debt’s share reflected more lending. In Industrials and Agriculture, the number of debt transactions was unchanged at nine, and their shares rose to 33% and 69% because overall activity in both sectors fell.
Ownership changes were most prominent in Financial Services, where M&A accounted for 16% of transactions, against 13% in Q2 and 14% a year earlier. Exit shares were highest in Materials, at 29%, and Healthcare, at 18%, though each represented only two transactions.
Regional Dynamics
Western Africa retained the largest share of activity in Q3, accounting for 44% of transactions, against 45% in Q2 and 37% a year earlier. Northern Africa gained share in both comparisons, rising to 24% from 20% and 18%. Southern Africa appeared in 23% of transactions, up from 20% in Q2 but below 25% the previous year. Eastern Africa moved the other way, falling to 27% from 33% and 31%, with fewer venture transactions accounting for much of the quarterly decline.
The company-headquarters comparison adds a different perspective. Half of Q3 transactions involving Ghana-headquartered companies involved businesses operating in multiple countries, and 45% of those involving Kenya-headquartered companies did as well. Oze and AgroCenta connected Ghana to other West African markets, while Pesapal and Turaco extended Kenyan companies’ reach across East Africa and beyond. An investment recorded against either headquarters market could therefore carry exposure to several countries.
Nigeria and Egypt showed more domestic operating footprints. Where Nigerian companies did operate more widely, their footprints were extensive, with four transactions spanning 36 other markets. Egypt’s proportion was about one in five. South African companies fell between these groups, with roughly a third of transactions involving operations elsewhere, mostly within Southern Africa.
For GPs and LPs, this impacts how they should assess geographic diversification. A portfolio spread across Ghanaian and Kenyan companies may have overlapping exposure to the same neighbouring markets. Conversely, investments in Nigerian and Egyptian companies in this sample were more closely tied to conditions in their home economies. Headquarters alone can make a portfolio appear either more concentrated or more diversified than its underlying businesses.
Q3 2026 Country Insights
The Big Five remained the busiest markets, though activity varied by country. Nigeria accounted for 27% of transactions, down from 31% in Q2 but above 20% a year earlier. Kenya’s share fell to 20%, down from 22% in Q2 and 22% a year earlier. South Africa recovered to 19% from 16% in Q2, while Ghana rose to 13% from 11%; both remained below their Q3 2025 shares of 22% and 17%. Egypt’s share rose to 17% from 16% in Q2 and 10% a year earlier, and it was the only Big Five market to record more transactions in both comparisons.
The countries also differed in how much of their activity involved businesses operating solely within their borders. In Egypt, single-country businesses accounted for 30 of 41 transactions (73%), compared with 34 of 64 in Nigeria (53%), 19 of 45 in South Africa (42%), 12 of 47 in Kenya (26%) and 22% in Ghana. As stated earlier, transactions associated with Kenya and Ghana were more likely to involve businesses operating across multiple countries.
Egypt's largely domestic activity was increasingly debt driven, with 18 transactions, up from 14 in Q2 and three a year earlier. Five of the largest were bank loans to property developers totalling about $830 million. Commercial International Bank, Banque Misr and National Bank of Egypt lent ~$356 million to Orascom Real Estate, while CIB provided ~$148 million to SODIC for its June North Coast project.
Nigeria recorded a similar increase in debt activity, with 25 credit transactions, up from 24 in Q2 and 14 a year earlier. Mauritius Commercial Bank lent $51 million to Tolaram to refinance its acquisition of Guinness Nigeria, while EBRD provided $25 million to food manufacturers Johnvents Foods and Noble-Eagle Industries. Equity investment also continued in technology, including an $18 million investment by 8VC and other investors in defence tech company Terra Industries. In South Africa, property featured among the larger transactions, including IronOak's ~$140 million acquisition of a 65% stake in Badger Properties.
Beyond the Big Five, Côte d'Ivoire recorded 24 transactions. These included Impact Fund Denmark's ~$28.5 million investment in NSIA Bank and EBID's ~$22.2 milliion financing for the Symphonie Building.
Transaction Types across regions
West and North Africa saw the largest increases in debt financing in Q3 2026. In West Africa, debt featured in 44% of transactions (47 deals), up from 32% in Q2 and 18% a year earlier. Project financing also rose to 17% (18 deals), up from 6% and 1%, while equity investment's share fell to 51%, down from 63% and 67%. North Africa followed a similar pattern, with debt accounting for 40% of transactions (23 deals), compared with 30% in Q2 and 12% a year earlier. Project financing reached 21%, the highest share among the major regions, including AfDB's ~$114 million financing for Gotion's battery manufacturing plant in Morocco. East Africa saw less change, with investment accounting for 58% of transactions and debt for 33%. The region recorded 21 debt transactions, compared with 20 in Q2 2026.
As debt financing increased, African lenders also became more active in West and North Africa. Foreign investors participated in 45% of West African transactions with identified investors, down from 54% in Q2 and 72% a year earlier. In North Africa, foreign participation fell to 39%, from 60% in Q2 2026. East Africa remained the region with the highest foreign participation at 60%, though it fell below 66% in Q2 and 72% in Q3 2025. Mirova's $10 million investment in Kenya's SunCulture was among the transactions involving foreign capital. Southern Africa recorded the lowest foreign participation at 38%.
Meanwhile, Southern Africa had the highest share of transactions involving changes in ownership. M&A and exits each accounted for 13% of activity (seven deals each), including Nedbank Private Equity's sale of Comsol to a consortium led by Convergence Partners and Rand Merchant Bank. However, the region's M&A share remained below the 25% recorded a year earlier. Elsewhere, M&A ranged from 8% of transactions in West Africa to 13% in East Africa, while exits ranged from 6% in East Africa to 11% in North Africa. Central Africa recorded just eight transactions, five of which involved debt financing.
Sectoral trends across regions and policy developments
Financial Services led transaction activity in every region in Q3 2026, up from Q2, when Energy & Utilities led Southern Africa and Industrials led Central Africa. However, transaction types differed across regions, as did the policy developments affecting financing activity.
East Africa: Financial Services accounted for half of regional activity, with 32 transactions, up from 29% in Q2 and 16% a year earlier. These included Afreximbank's $10 million financing for Azania Bank in Tanzania and Absa Group's exit from its Kenyan insurance businesses. The sector attracted both new financing and acquisitions, while Energy & Utilities and Consumer Discretionary followed with nine transactions each.
West Africa: Financial Services appeared in 42 transactions, accounting for 40% of regional activity and 49% of the continent's Financial Services deals. Nigeria's bank recapitalisation programme had raised ₦4.65 trillion across 33 banks, although no Nigerian commercial bank featured among the identified investors or lenders in Q3. Meanwhile, West Africa accounted for 12 of the continent's 20 Consumer Staples transactions, including Cardinal Torch's ₦4.5 billion (~$3.3 million) cashew processing plant in Nigeria.
North Africa: Energy & Utilities ranked second with 14 transactions, representing 25% of regional activity. These included SEFA's support for Nareva in Morocco and MIGA's €13 million (~$14.9 million) guarantee for AEOLUS in Tunisia. In Egypt, property developers continued to face financing pressure as higher construction costs and longer buyer instalment periods increased the time between paying contractors and receiving sales proceeds. New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) 's review of stalled projects and financing options reflects these concerns. The large bank loans covered in Country Insights may help developers manage these pressures, depending on how the funds are used.
Southern Africa: Financial Services overtook Energy & Utilities, recording 18 transactions against 12. These included BII's $50 million financing for Zimbabwe's NMBZ Holdings and Central Africa Building Society. Meanwhile, South Africa's electricity wheeling reforms are opening opportunities for energy projects that sell power to commercial customers through the national grid. SolarAfrica's R1.5 billion (~$93 million) SunCentral 2 financing, announced earlier in 2026, is one example of a project designed for one-to-many wheeling. However, grid access and customer agreements will still determine which projects can secure financing.
Central Africa: Financial Services led with two of the region's eight transactions, although the small number of deals makes it difficult to draw conclusions about sector preferences.
Methodology
This report is derived exclusively from the Stears Private Transactions Database, accessible through the Stears Data Platform. The database monitors private market activity in Africa, focusing on growth equity, private equity, private debt, infrastructure financing, and mergers and acquisitions. Transactions in the database are compiled from reliable third-party sources, including company websites, press releases, and investor reports, with each transaction independently verified by at least two separate sources.
Historical figures may be revised as we verify additional transactions or as previously undisclosed transaction details become available.
Geographical and Sector Classifications
A single transaction may be associated with multiple countries/regions or sectors, reflecting the operational scope of the company involved. As a result, regional and sector totals often exceed the underlying total number of transactions. As such, percentage shares in geographical and sector analyses will not sum to 100%.
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